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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround wins the award. In reality, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or just the biggest surprise.

But the current competition is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions fading and longtime also-rans rising in unison. During an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still